WTI Daily Update: Tuesday 3rd November 2026

Cracks, spreads, flows

Deal talk took the Qeshm bounce back, and more. WTI fell about $3.5 in twenty minutes from 13:25 GMT, to $94.1, through Monday's flush low. Trump was on Fox News at the time. He said US aid to Israel "gets cut off at year-end" and that he had reached an agreement with Netanyahu. The market read it as Washington reining in the Israeli strikes after the vote that this morning's note flagged as the main risk. An unconfirmed report that Washington had approved a draft memorandum with Iran added to the selling. Nothing has been signed.

Where the talks are. Araghchi says Iran held indirect talks with Witkoff and Kushner in New York, through Qatar, and denies any agreement to meet directly. On the table is a Qatar-brokered two-day timetable: US measures on day one, Hormuz open and shipping back to normal on day two. Tehran's price hasn't moved: sanctions lifted, the June oil waivers restored, frozen funds released, a smaller US military presence, and recognition of the shipping lanes Iran and Oman have drawn through the strait. Washington hasn't answered, and it still wants the nuclear file on the agenda early. Rezaei says a letter from Vance showed a changed tone. The gap between the two sides is the same as on Monday. The market is pricing the timetable, not the terms.

The front spread led the move. WTI Dec/Jan is about a fifth narrower than at Monday's settlement. Jan/Mar is barely changed. The prompt barrel is losing its premium faster than the rest of the curve. Brent Jan/Mar is down about 7%. The Brent–WTI Jan futures spread narrowed by about an eighth. Brent carried more of the war premium and keeps giving more back.

Cracks widened while crude fell. Futures diesel cracks are up about 3% on Monday's settlement, gasoline cracks about 6%. Products are holding and crude is doing the falling. That's premium leaving crude, not refinery crude demand weakening. The latest EIA spot data, for 27th October, has the Gulf Coast diesel crack at $96.8. Distillate stocks are 9.6% under the 5-year average.

Stocks don't argue for a bid. Cushing holds 27.0M bbl, 9.3% over the 5-year average. API is tonight and EIA tomorrow. Watch the SPR line for the first exchange deliveries.

The read: the market is pricing a deal before there is one, and the front spread agrees with the selling. But the snap back from $94.1 to $96.1 says sellers ran out below Monday's low. Retests of $97.5 from below are for selling. An hourly close under $95.7 opens $94.1 again. The overnight risk runs the other way: Tehran rejecting the timetable, or a strike after the polls close, puts the premium straight back.

The auction

This week's developing 5-day composite started on Monday. Value is still $97.5–103.2, with the dPoC at $100.1. Tuesday is building a second distribution under it, with a new HVN at $97.0 between Monday's $95.7 flush low and the dVaL.

The morning bounce reached $99.3, poked above this week's VWAP and failed. It never reached this morning's $99.8–100.2 sell zone, so that idea is off. Then came the flush: $97.3 to $94.1 in twenty minutes, through Monday's low, with next to no volume traded under $95.7. At 14:09 GMT WTI was back at $96.1.

A fast break that gets pulled straight back is a failed auction lower, short term. It doesn't flip the bias. Price is under the dVaL, and the VWAP is falling at $98.5. Below $95.7 there is no volume to hold price before $94.1.

WTI (USOUSD) hourly chart, 22nd October to 3rd November, with 5-day composite profiles and this week's developing composite. The developing value is $97.5 to $103.2 with the dPoC at $100.1, and a second distribution is building around $97.0. Tuesday's flush hit $94.1, below Monday's $95.7 low, and price is back at $96.1. — WTI (USOUSD), hourly, 5-day composites, with this week's developing composite on the right. 3rd November, 14:09 GMT.

WTI levels and setups

Short below $97.5. Sell the dVaL retest at $97.0–97.5. Targets $95.7, then $94.1. Stop $98.6, above this week's VWAP. Second setup only on an hourly close under $95.7: sell the retest at $95.6–95.9, stop $96.7, target $94.1.

Sell setup dVaL retest

Sell zone: $97.0 – $97.5 Tuesday's new HVN up to the developing dVaL, from below
Stop-loss: $98.6 Above this week's VWAP
Targets: $95.7 / $94.1 Monday's flush low, then Tuesday's

Sell setup breakdown

Trigger: Hourly close below $95.7 No trigger, no trade
Sell zone: $95.6 – $95.9 Retest of Monday's low from below
Stop-loss: $96.7 Back above the flush range
Targets: $94.1 Tuesday's flush low

Invalidation: Hourly acceptance back above $97.5 puts price back in the developing value and both shorts are off, with $98.5 VWAP and $100.1 dPoC next. Tehran rejecting the timetable, or a strike after the polls close, does the same.

Level	What it is	Role now
$103.2	Developing dVaH (this week)	Top of this week's value
$101.3	Last week's 5-day composite VaL	Resistance
$100.1	Developing dPoC (this week)	Resistance
$99.3	Tuesday's high	Where the bounce failed
$98.5	This week's VWAP	Stop side
$97.5	Developing dVaL (this week)	Pivot; sell zone
$97.0	Tuesday's new HVN	Bottom of the sell zone
$96.1	Price at 14:09 GMT	Price is here
$95.7	Monday's flush low	First target; breakdown trigger
$94.1	Tuesday's flush low	Second target

Calendar (London time)

Tuesday 21:30: API weekly crude stocks
Tuesday 23:00: the first US midterm polls close. The first big batch closes at 00:00.
Wednesday 15:30: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Watch the SPR line and Cushing.
Wednesday: EIA spot price update, with data to Tuesday 3rd November

Cracks and Dated Brent–WTI are calculated from EIA daily spot prices against WTI Cushing (latest published: Tuesday 27th October). Timespreads and futures cracks are described from futures prices against Monday's settlement, not quoted. Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.