Daily note, Wednesday 4th November 2026
Blue wave and peace talk push oil out of Tuesday's value
Democrats are projected to take both chambers, and Tehran says its Supreme Leader has authorised peace talks. The post-election strike trade is coming out. WTI Dec/Jan is another fifth narrower and Brent Jan/Mar has lost more than a third since Friday, while diesel cracks hold. WTI is under Tuesday's $96.0 VaL. Sell the retest from below.
- Crude oil
-
WTI crude USOUSD
Bearish below $96.4
Tue low$94.1Tue VaL$96.0Tue PoC$96.4Mon VaL$97.5VWAP$97.8Tue VaH$98.3Mon PoC$100.1Mon VaH$103.2$95.4
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 12:21 GMT. Mon VaH, Mon PoC, Mon VaL: Monday's session profile. Tue VaH, Tue PoC, Tue VaL: Tuesday's session profile. VWAP: this week's. Tue low: Tuesday's flush low.
Cracks, spreads, flows
The post-election strike trade is coming out. Democrats are projected to take both the House and the Senate (CBS, CNN). Crude went into the vote pricing the risk of a new campaign against Iran once the polls closed. A Democratic Congress makes that harder to sell. Overnight, Iranian President Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has authorised the government to pursue peace talks. Qatar says both sides are still committed to mediation. A senior Iranian official says they're still "far" from a deal. The market is trading the first two lines, not the third.
The prompt spread keeps bleeding. WTI Dec/Jan is about a fifth narrower than at Tuesday's settlement and down by nearly half since Friday. Jan/Mar is about a tenth narrower on the day. Brent Jan/Feb and Jan/Mar are both down about 8–9%, and Brent Jan/Mar has lost more than a third since Friday. No bid for the prompt barrel on either side of the Atlantic.
Brent is giving back more. The Brent–WTI Jan futures spread narrowed by about 8% today and is down more than a quarter since Friday. Brent carried more of the war premium, so it leaves Brent first. The latest EIA spot data, for 27th October, has Dated Brent at $19.7 over WTI Cushing. Exports were 4.85M b/d in the week to 23rd October. A narrowing arb is what slows that.
Cracks aren't following crude down. Futures diesel cracks are flat on Tuesday's settlement and keep Tuesday's 6% gain. Gasoline cracks are slightly softer. The 3-2-1 is unchanged. EIA spot for 27th October: Gulf Coast diesel crack $96.8, 3-2-1 $50.2. Distillate stocks are 102.8M bbl, 9.6% under the 5-year average. Refinery margins are holding. The premium is leaving crude, not product.
EIA today. The week to 23rd October had commercial crude at 410.6M bbl (−1.9M), 3.8% under the 5-year average, Cushing at 27.0M bbl, 9.3% over it, and the SPR at 282.6M bbl. Another Cushing build adds to the pressure on WTI's prompt spread. A big distillate draw keeps diesel cracks where they are.
Funds haven't shown their hand yet. Managed money was net long 31,128 WTI contracts on 27th October, before Monday's drop. Friday's report covers the liquidation. (Charts.)
The read: flat price lower, the prompt spread narrower, cracks steady. That's war premium leaving, not demand going soft. The thing that was supposed to come after the polls closed looks less likely now. Rallies into Tuesday's value are for selling while the spreads keep narrowing. The risk is the same as it was: a hit on oil infrastructure or Hormuz shuts.
The auction
Monday's session built value at $97.5–103.2, with the PoC at $100.1, and price left it on Tuesday. Tuesday's session built a new distribution lower down: value $96.0–98.3, PoC $96.4. Tuesday's flush to $94.1 was rejected straight back into it.
This morning held Tuesday's PoC and failed at about $97.3, under Monday's VaL. The midday push then broke Tuesday's $96.0 VaL with a probe to about $95.1. At 12:21 GMT WTI is $95.4, under Tuesday's value. This week's VWAP is at $97.8 and falling.
Price is out of value under Tuesday's VaL. Acceptance below $96.0 puts Tuesday's $94.1 low back in play. Back above $96.4 and it's still balance.
WTI levels and setups
Short below $96.4. Sell the retest of $96.0–96.4 from below. Target $94.1. Stop $97.6, above Monday's VaL.
Sell setup Tuesday VaL retest
- Sell zone
- $96.0 – $96.4 Tuesday's VaL up to its PoC, from below
- Stop-loss
- $97.6 Above Monday's VaL and this morning's high
- Targets
- $94.1 Tuesday's flush low
Invalidation: Hourly acceptance back above $96.4 puts price back inside Tuesday's value, and the short is off above $97.5, with the $97.8 VWAP and Tuesday's $98.3 VaH next. A strike on Iranian oil infrastructure or Tehran walking out of Doha does the same.
| Level | What it is | Role today |
|---|---|---|
| $103.2 | Monday's VaH | Top of Monday's value |
| $100.1 | Monday's PoC | Resistance |
| $98.3 | Tuesday's VaH | Resistance |
| $97.8 | VWAP (this week) | Resistance |
| $97.5 | Monday's VaL | Stop side |
| $96.4 | Tuesday's PoC | Top of the sell zone |
| $96.0 | Tuesday's VaL | Pivot; sell zone |
| $95.4 | Price | Under value |
| $94.1 | Tuesday's flush low | Target |
Today's calendar (London time)
- Wednesday 15:30: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Cushing, exports, distillate.
- Wednesday, about 16:00: EIA spot prices, data to Tuesday 3rd November.
- Friday 13:30: US payrolls.
- Friday 20:30: CFTC Commitments of Traders, positions to Tuesday 3rd November.
Cracks and Dated Brent–WTI are calculated from EIA daily spot prices against WTI Cushing (latest published: Tuesday 27th October). Timespreads and futures cracks are described from futures prices against Tuesday's settlement, not quoted. Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.