Oil fundamentals
US crude inventories, how speculators are positioned in WTI, the global supply and demand balance, and who is producing the oil. Charts update when new data comes out.
US inventories
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, week ending 9 Oct 2026. Released on Wednesdays at 15:30 London time, or a day later in US holiday weeks. Stocks in million barrels.
- Commercial crude
- 415.6M
- Cushing, Oklahoma
- 26.6M
- Gasoline
- 208.3M
- Distillates
- 102.6M
- Strategic reserve (SPR)
- 283.0M
−8.56M draw
−2.7% vs 5-yr avg
+1.86M build
+3.9% vs 5-yr avg
+3.52M build
−4.4% vs 5-yr avg
−2.53M draw
−12.2% vs 5-yr avg
unchanged
−34.8% vs 5-yr avg
Commercial crude stocks fell 8.56M barrels to 415.6M in the week to 9 Oct 2026, 2.7% below the 5-year average for the time of year. Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, holds 26.6M barrels (+1.86M on the week, +3.9% against its 5-year average).
For each week, the band is the range over the five years before it. Excludes the SPR.
Bars below zero are draws, which tend to support prices. Bars above zero are builds.
| Stocks, M bbl | Level | Week | vs year ago | 5-yr avg | vs 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial crude | 415.6 | −8.56 draw | −8.2 | 426.9 | −2.7% |
| Cushing, Oklahoma | 26.6 | +1.86 build | +4.6 | 25.6 | +3.9% |
| Gasoline | 208.3 | +3.52 build | −10.6 | 218.0 | −4.4% |
| Distillates | 102.6 | −2.53 draw | −14.4 | 116.9 | −12.2% |
| Strategic reserve (SPR) | 283.0 | unchanged | −124.8 | 433.7 | −34.8% |
CFTC positioning
CFTC Commitments of Traders, disaggregated futures only, WTI-Physical - New York Mercantile Exchange. Positions as of Tuesday 6 Oct 2026, released the following Friday at 20:30 London time. Figures in contracts of 1,000 barrels.
- Managed money net
- +53,598
- Longs
- 178,353
- Shorts
- 124,755
- 3-year range
- 28/100
- Open interest
- 1.89M
−25,994 on the week
−30,675 on the week
−4,681 on the week
0 is the most bearish week, 100 the most bullish
contracts, all traders
In the week to Tuesday 6 Oct 2026, managed money (hedge funds and CTAs) cut 25,994 contracts of net long exposure in NYMEX WTI, to +53,598. That puts positioning at 28 on a 0–100 scale of its 3-year range (-38,154 to +293,235). A low reading leaves room for short covering if the news turns bullish. A high one means a lot of length that could be sold.
Longs minus shorts held by hedge funds and other money managers.
Gross positions. A fall in longs and a rise in shorts both pull the net position lower.
| Week | Longs | Shorts | Net | Net change | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 178,353 | 124,755 | +53,598 | −25,994 | 1,889,422 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | 209,028 | 129,436 | +79,592 | −22,236 | 1,878,576 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 223,190 | 121,362 | +101,828 | −4,451 | 1,841,811 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | 221,896 | 115,617 | +106,279 | −5,452 | 1,955,764 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | 218,960 | 107,229 | +111,731 | +17,450 | 1,939,911 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 205,300 | 111,019 | +94,281 | +10,261 | 1,921,085 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | 196,882 | 112,862 | +84,020 | −3,459 | 1,906,740 |
| 18 Aug 2026 | 195,538 | 108,059 | +87,479 | +7,563 | 1,888,960 |
Global supply and demand
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 edition, table 3a. Published monthly. Figures in million barrels a day of crude and other liquids. History runs to Sep 2026. After that the figures are EIA's forecast. Months older than this edition covers come from EIA's archived December outlook.
- World demand 2026
- 102.44M
- World demand 2027
- 104.65M
- China demand 2026
- 16.03M
- Balance 2026 Q4
- −0.69M
−1.97M b/d on 2025
+2.21M b/d on 2026
−0.55M b/d on the year
b/d, supply minus demand: a deficit, stocks draw
EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook puts world oil demand at 102.44M barrels a day in 2026, −1.97M on the year, and 104.65M in 2027 (+2.21M). It has supply running ahead of demand from 2027 Q1, which would mean building stocks and pressure on prices.
The shaded part is EIA's forecast.
Supply minus demand. Below zero, stocks draw. Above zero, they build. Forecast quarters are lighter.
| M b/d | World demand | Growth | OECD demand | Non-OECD demand | China demand | World supply | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 96.96 | – | 44.79 | 52.17 | 15.13 | 95.60 | −1.36 |
| 2022 | 99.76 | +2.80 | 45.65 | 54.10 | 15.23 | 100.46 | +0.70 |
| 2023 | 101.50 | +1.74 | 45.77 | 55.73 | 15.98 | 102.53 | +1.03 |
| 2024 | 103.10 | +1.60 | 46.22 | 56.89 | 16.37 | 103.15 | +0.05 |
| 2025 | 104.41 | +1.31 | 46.33 | 58.08 | 16.58 | 106.27 | +1.86 |
| 2026 estimate | 102.44 | −1.97 | 45.69 | 56.75 | 16.03 | 101.14 | −1.30 |
| 2027 forecast | 104.65 | +2.21 | 46.17 | 58.48 | 16.30 | 109.53 | +4.88 |
Who supplies the market
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 edition, tables 3b–3d. History runs to September 2026, then EIA's forecast. Million barrels a day of crude and other liquids, except OPEC production and capacity, which are crude only. Groups follow EIA's tables: OPEC+ is the members bound by the OPEC+ agreements, and rest of world is everyone outside OPEC+ apart from the US.
- World supply 2026
- 101.14M
- OPEC+ supply 2026
- 34.87M
- US supply 2026
- 24.39M
- OPEC spare capacity
- 0.02M
- Unplanned outages
- 9.96M
−5.13M b/d on 2025
−4.49M b/d on the year
+0.67M b/d on the year
b/d in September 2026, 2.57M a year earlier
b/d in September 2026: OPEC 7.34M, others 2.62M
EIA puts world liquids supply at 101.14M barrels a day in 2026, −5.13M on 2025. OPEC+ accounts for −4.49M of that, the United States +0.67M and the rest of the world −1.32M. For 2027 it forecasts 109.53M (+8.39M). OPEC's spare capacity, output it could bring on within 30 days and hold for 90, was 0.02M b/d in September 2026, so there is almost no cushion if more supply is lost.
Each quarter compared with the same quarter a year before. The shaded part is EIA's forecast.
The gap between the lines is spare capacity: output OPEC could bring on within 30 days and hold for 90.
| Supply, M b/d | Group | 2025 | 2026 est. | 2027 fcst | Change 2026 | Change 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | OPEC+ | 10.53 | 10.40 | 10.52 | −0.13 | +0.12 |
| Saudi Arabia | OPEC+ | 11.21 | 9.21 | – | −2.00 | – |
| Iraq | OPEC+ | 4.50 | 2.89 | – | −1.61 | – |
| Kazakhstan | OPEC+ | 2.15 | 2.08 | 2.19 | −0.07 | +0.11 |
| Mexico | OPEC+ | 1.87 | 1.86 | 1.78 | −0.01 | −0.08 |
| Kuwait | OPEC+ | 2.80 | 1.73 | – | −1.07 | – |
| Nigeria | OPEC+ | 1.67 | 1.68 | – | +0.01 | – |
| Iran | OPEC, exempt | 4.77 | 3.76 | – | −1.01 | – |
| Libya | OPEC, exempt | 1.38 | 1.39 | – | +0.01 | – |
| Venezuela | OPEC, exempt | 1.01 | 1.14 | – | +0.13 | – |
| United States | Non‑OPEC+ | 23.72 | 24.39 | 25.25 | +0.67 | +0.86 |
| Canada | Non‑OPEC+ | 6.26 | 6.38 | 6.47 | +0.12 | +0.09 |
| China | Non‑OPEC+ | 5.45 | 5.54 | 5.55 | +0.09 | +0.01 |
| Brazil | Non‑OPEC+ | 4.65 | 5.26 | 5.33 | +0.61 | +0.07 |
| United Arab Emirates | Non‑OPEC+ | 4.34 | 4.13 | 5.20 | −0.21 | +1.07 |
| Norway | Non‑OPEC+ | 2.05 | 2.08 | 2.08 | +0.03 | 0.00 |
| Argentina | Non‑OPEC+ | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.13 | +0.10 | +0.05 |
| Guyana | Non‑OPEC+ | 0.75 | 0.92 | 1.15 | +0.17 | +0.23 |
Crude and other liquids by producer. EIA doesn't publish forecasts for individual OPEC members, so their forecast years are blank. Iran, Libya and Venezuela are in OPEC but outside the OPEC+ cuts.
US production, weekly
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, week ending 9 Oct 2026. Weekly production is an estimate, rounded and revised later against monthly data.
- US crude production
- 13.68M
- US crude exports
- 4.05M
b/d, −0.30M on the week, +0.04M on the year
b/d, 4-week average, −0.03M on the year
Weekly estimate, million barrels a day.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, last fetched 15 Oct 2026, 20:26 BST. These are public statistics, shown for information. They are not a trading signal or advice.