Daily note, Monday 9th November 2026
Oil broke value after the settle, and the curve stayed put
Monday's last leg came after the settle: WTI dropped $2.6 to $85.3 in twenty minutes, through Monday's low and the weekly long's stop. WTI Dec/Jan didn't move through it, and Brent's spreads finished wider than before it. That was stops, not barrels. The real damage is in Brent's curve, which lost more than a fifth on the day, and OPEC barrels are coming back. Neutral under $87.1. Back above it, the break has failed: long to the $88.8 VWAP, then the $90.6 PoC.
- Crude oil
-
WTI crude USOUSD
Neutral under $87.1
Mon low$85.3Mon first low$86.4VaL$87.1VWAP$88.8PoC$90.6Rebound high$92.8$86.8
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 20:30 GMT. VaL, PoC: last week's 5-day composite (2nd–6th November). VWAP: this week's, at 20:30 GMT Monday. Mon first low: Monday's midday low. Mon low: Monday's post-settlement low. Rebound high: last week's high after Wednesday's flush.
Cracks, spreads, flows
The last leg came after the settle. WTI futures settled 4.4% lower on Monday and Brent 5.9%, on top of last week's 13–16%. Then, between 19:20 and 19:40 GMT, WTI dropped another $2.6 to $85.3. The post-settlement book was thin and there was no confirmed headline. It has taken back $1.5 since.
The curve sat it out. Through the flush, WTI Dec/Jan didn't move. Brent Jan/Mar finished wider than it was before the flush. Stops went and the spreads stayed. December options expire next week with heavy open interest at the round strikes, and in a thin book dealer hedging turns a $1 move into $2. That's what Monday evening looked like: flat price, no barrels.
The real damage is in Brent's curve. On Friday's settles, Brent Jan/Feb lost nearly a quarter by Monday evening and Jan/Mar more than a fifth. Brent Jan/Feb is nearly half what it was on 30th October. It is still backwardated. WTI held up better: Dec/Jan about a tenth narrower, Jan/Mar nearly a fifth. The Brent–WTI Jan futures spread lost another fifth. A Reuters survey has OPEC output up 1.38M b/d in October to 22.87M b/d, about 90% of pre-war. The barrels are coming back before anything is signed. Brent carried the premium, and Brent's curve is where the market is testing how loose the barrel really is.
Dec/Jan is the rich spread. It held on Monday. It won't hold another Cushing build. Cushing is 27.3M bbl, 9.2% over the 5-year average. Exports fell 1.18M b/d to 3.68M b/d in the week to 30th October. Dated Brent was only $7.4 over WTI Cushing on EIA spot on 3rd November, from $19.7 a week earlier. Barrels that can't get out end up in Oklahoma. December WTI expires on Friday 20th November. A build in Thursday's EIA puts Dec/Jan on the same path as Brent's spreads, into expiry.
Diesel held until the flush. The futures diesel crack was higher on the day at 18:30 GMT, gave up about 2% in the flush, and is about 1.5% lower on Friday. The futures gasoline crack is about 4% lower, heating oil Dec/Jan about 5% narrower. On EIA spot for 3rd November: Gulf Coast diesel crack $90.4, 3-2-1 $45.0. Distillate stocks are 99.3M bbl, 13.3% under the 5-year average. Diesel is still the floor under runs.
Funds and producers. Managed money was net long 21,728 WTI contracts on 3rd November, at the 21st percentile of its 3-year range. Friday's report, to Tuesday 10th, catches Wednesday's flush and Monday. Open interest rose across the WTI curve last week while price fell. The front months shed contracts and 2027 added them. That's producers locking in 2027, not just longs leaving. Producer selling sits in the back of the curve. It caps the deferred months, not the prompt. (Charts.)
Iran. Trump met Qatar's prime minister for 45 minutes on Monday, Axios reports. There was no readout. Afterwards he told Reuters that Qatar and Saudi Arabia want a peaceful solution and the US is ready to strike if it has to. Tehran's line, via Tasnim: no talks until Washington acts on its seven conditions. UKMTO now classes Saturday's tanker incident off Khasab as an attack, and the Saudi East-West pipeline was hit again. No official is calling a deal close. The market keeps pricing one.
The read: Monday had two parts. In the day, Brent's curve gave way and OPEC supply is coming back. That's real, and it's why the bias isn't bullish any more. In the evening, $2.6 of flat price went on no headline and no spread move. That was stops. If price gets back over $87.1, the evening was the last of the liquidation. Long the reclaim. Under $85.3, nothing.
The auction
Last week's 5-day composite: VaH $96.7, PoC $90.6, VaL $87.1. Monday sold from $91.6 through Friday's value and the VaL to $86.4 at midday. The bounce stalled at $88.7, just under this week's $88.8 VWAP. Price sat at $87.9 into the settle.
Then the flush: $87.9 to $85.3 in twenty minutes. That was the third test of $87.1 in four sessions, and the first to break it properly. The weekly long's $85.9 stop is gone. Price couldn't hold the low: at 20:30 GMT WTI is $86.8, back over Monday's $86.4 first low and $0.3 under the VaL. It's under value but not accepted there.
An hourly close back above $87.1 makes it a failed break. A failed break rotates back through value: the $88.8 VWAP first, where Monday's bounce died, then the $90.6 PoC. Under $85.3, price is below last week's value with nothing under it on this chart, at the lowest since the end of August.
WTI levels and setups
Neutral under $87.1. Long on an hourly close back above it: buy $87.1–87.6, stop $86.2, targets $88.8, then $90.6. Under $85.3, no long.
Buy setup failed break back into value
- Trigger
- Hourly close back above $87.1
- Buy zone
- $87.1 – $87.6 Back above last week's $87.1 VaL
- Stop-loss
- $86.2 Under Monday's $86.4 first low
- Targets
- $88.8 / $90.6 This week's VWAP, then last week's 5-day composite PoC
Invalidation: Under $85.3, no long: Monday's low is gone and price is under last week's value with nothing below it on this chart. After the reclaim, back under $86.4 and the long is out. WTI Dec/Jan narrowing while price retakes $87.1 makes the bounce flat price only. No trade.
| Level | What it is | Role today |
|---|---|---|
| $92.8 | Last week's rebound high | Resistance; thin volume above |
| $90.6 | Last week's 5-day composite PoC | Second target |
| $88.8 | This week's VWAP | First target; Monday's bounce stalled under it |
| $87.1 | Last week's 5-day composite VaL | Pivot; long above |
| $86.8 | Price | Under value |
| $86.4 | Monday's first low | Support |
| $86.2 | Under Monday's first low | Stop |
| $85.3 | Monday's post-settlement low | No long under |
The next three days (London time)
- Tuesday 17:00: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (November).
- Wednesday: Veterans Day. The API and EIA stock reports each move back a day.
- Thursday: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, week to 6th November. Cushing is the number.
Cracks and Dated Brent–WTI are calculated from EIA daily spot prices against WTI Cushing (latest published: Tuesday 3rd November). Timespreads and futures cracks are described from futures prices against Friday's settlement, not quoted. Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.