Trade idea, WTI, 15 October 2026
WTI long if price gets back inside Wednesday's value
WTI has slipped just below Wednesday's value area. If it gets back above the 94.92 daily VaL, buy the retest with a stop under Monday's 94.31 PoC, targeting the 95.93 VaH and then the 97.27 composite VaH.
Prices as of 14 Oct 2026, at 23:20 UTC
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WTI crude USOUSD
Long back inside value
mPoC94.31dVaL94.92dPoC95.47PoC95.64dVaH95.93VaH97.2794.82
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 23:20 UTC. Ticks are volume profile levels: dVaL, dPoC and dVaH are Wednesday's daily value area, mPoC is Monday's daily PoC, and PoC and VaH are 5-day composite levels.
The setup
Wednesday's daily profile is complete: value area 94.92–95.93, with the daily PoC at 95.47. Late in the session WTI slipped just below the daily VaL and the 94.82 composite VaL, and is trading at 94.82.
The idea is a long if price gets back inside value. An hourly close back above 94.92 would show that the dip below value was rejected. A market that returns into value tends to rotate across it, which puts the 95.93 VaH in play. A break and hold above 95.93 opens the 97.27 5-day composite VaH. Monday's daily PoC at 94.31 sits under the entry and is the line that should hold.
Buy setup back inside value
- Trigger
- Hourly close back above 94.92 Wait for it: no trigger, no trade
- Buy zone
- 94.92 – 95.00 Retest of the daily VaL from above
- Stop-loss
- 94.20 Below Monday's daily PoC (94.31)
- Targets
- 95.93 / 97.27 Daily VaH, then the 5-day composite VaH
Invalidation: acceptance below Monday's daily PoC at 94.31 means the dip below value is being accepted, not rejected. The idea is off.
Risk and management
Risk is about 0.75 from the middle of the zone. The first target pays about 1.3 times that and the second about 3 times. Taking partial profit at 95.93 and moving the stop to entry once the VaH breaks keeps the second leg risk-free.
The bigger picture is in today's WTI daily note: the September downtrend has broken, value is building higher, and an 11.1M-barrel API draw and Middle East supply risk back the bullish view. Thursday's EIA stocks at 16:00 UTC and US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC can move price fast, so avoid entering in the minutes around them.
Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes. This is a trade idea, not advice. Size it so that a stop-out is a loss you're comfortable with.