WTI Daily Levels: Thursday 15 October 2026

The picture

WTI has changed character this week. The descending trendline from the 22 September high gave way on 8–9 October. The retest on 12 October held near 90.40, and since then each session has made a higher low: about 92.05 on 13 October and 94.14 on 14 October. Price has climbed out of the old composite value, cleared the 93.05–93.16 PoC and VaH, and is now building value higher up.

Wednesday's session ran up to 96.21 and was sold back under the naked 5-day composite PoC at 95.64, a level left over from the 21–25 September profile. At 21:40 UTC it was trading at 95.31, inside a small balance between about 94.90 and 96.00. The 95.64 PoC is the line in the sand for the next leg.

WTI (USOUSD), hourly, with 5-day composite and daily volume profiles. 14 October, 21:40 UTC. Select the chart to open it full size.

Fundamentals

The supply story still leans bullish. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated again this week, including a strike on a Saudi Aramco administrative building on Tuesday night, and Iran's IRGC Navy is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA's October report warned that diesel tightness could last well into 2027. After the close, the API reported an 11.1M-barrel crude draw against an expected build of 1.9M. If Thursday's official EIA figures (16:00 UTC) confirm a draw of that size, it would support the move through 95.64.

There are offsets. Saudi output recovered by about 2M bpd in September, Hormuz flows are back to roughly 80% of pre-war levels according to Shell, and US production is at a record 13.98M bpd. Wednesday's hot CPI also lifted the dollar, which is a headwind. With Goldman Sachs estimating a $24 risk premium in the price, headlines can move crude several dollars in either direction, so size positions accordingly. Average daily range is about $4.

WTI levels and setups

The preferred trade is to buy a pullback into the value built on 13–14 October, not to chase into the 95.64 PoC. Hourly acceptance above 96.21 (Wednesday's high) would open 97.25 and then the prior composite value area at 99.81–100.57, where a reaction is likely on the first test.

Buy setup preferred

Buy zone: 94.09 – 94.35 Daily VaH and PoC, just under the 94.82 VaL
Stop-loss: 93.55 Below the 14 October low (94.14) and back towards old value
Targets: 95.64 / 96.20 / 97.25

Buy setup deeper pullback

Buy zone: 93.05 – 93.20 5-day composite PoC and VaH, the breakout base
Stop-loss: 92.40 Back inside the old value area
Targets: 94.82 / 95.64

Sell setup only on rejection

Sell zone: 99.80 – 100.60 Prior 5-day composite value area
Stop-loss: 101.30
Targets: 97.25 / 95.64

Invalidation: hourly acceptance back below 93.05 puts price back inside the old composite value and turns the bias neutral, with 91.60–91.71 next.

Level	What it is	Role today
99.81–100.57	Prior 5-day composite value area	Major resistance band
97.25	Level from the 28 Sep–2 Oct profile	First target above 96.21
96.21	14 October high	Breakout trigger
95.64	5-day composite PoC (naked)	Resistance now; pivot for the day
94.82	5-day composite VaL	First support
94.09–94.31	Daily VaH and PoC	Preferred buy zone
93.05–93.16	5-day composite VaH and PoC	Breakout base; bias holds above
91.60–91.71	5-day composite PoC and daily VaL	Support if 93.05 fails
90.72	5-day composite VaL	Range floor; bias turns bearish below

Today's calendar (UTC)

02:55: Fed's Bowman speaks
12:30: US PPI (0.5% m/m expected), retail sales (0.3% expected), jobless claims, Philly Fed and Empire State surveys
16:00: EIA weekly crude, gasoline and distillate stocks
Friday 03:30: Fed Chair Warsh speaks

Wait for price to reach a zone and show a reaction on the 15-minute or hourly chart before entering. Stand aside in the minutes around 12:30 and 16:00 UTC. Prices are from Vantage's USOUSD feed and can differ from NYMEX futures and from your broker's quotes.