Daily note, Friday 16 October 2026
WTI: Thursday's 96.32 VaH decides the day
WTI broke out after an 8.6M-barrel EIA draw, tagged 97.87 and spent the night in a tight range above Thursday's value. It has now slipped through the 96.82 LVN and is testing the 96.32 daily VaH. Acceptance above it targets the 97.25 composite VaH, and acceptance below puts price back inside Thursday's value with the 94.13 PoC below.
Prices as of 16 Oct 2026, at 10:25 BST
- Crude oil
-
WTI crude USOUSD
Pivot 96.32: bullish above, bearish below
dPoC94.13VaL94.82PoC95.64dVaH96.32LVN96.82VaH97.2596.51
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 10:25 BST. Ticks are volume profile levels: dVaH and dPoC are Thursday's daily value area high and PoC, LVN is the low-volume node from Thursday's breakout, and PoC, VaL and VaH are 5-day composite levels.
The picture
Thursday was a breakout day. WTI spent the European morning rotating around Thursday's daily PoC at 94.13. It then broke higher into the US session and kept going after the EIA report, through the 95.64 composite PoC, and peaked at 97.87 at about 17:30 BST. The breakout left a thin, single-print area on the profile and pushed above the 97.25 5-day composite VaH, but price didn't hold there.
Overnight, price consolidated in a tight range of about 96.70–97.40, just above a low-volume node (LVN) around 96.75–96.88. This morning it slipped through the LVN. At 10:25 BST it was trading at 96.51, a few cents above Thursday's daily VaH at 96.32. Thursday's PoC is a long way below, at 94.13, because most of the day's volume traded before the breakout.
That makes 96.32 the level that decides the day. If price is accepted above it, the breakout has held: the LVN at 96.82 and then the composite VaH at 97.25 are the targets. If price is accepted below it, price is back inside Thursday's value. Value areas tend to pull price back towards their PoC, which puts 95.64, 94.82 and 94.13 in play.
Fundamentals
The EIA confirmed a large draw on Thursday. US commercial crude stocks fell by 8.6M barrels to 415.6M, against an expected small build. It was the biggest weekly draw since February and leaves stocks about 2.7% below the 5-year average. The details were less clean. Cushing stocks rose 1.9M barrels to a 5-month high, gasoline stocks rose 3.5M barrels against an expected draw, and US crude production slipped to 13.68M bpd from the record 13.98M bpd the week before.
The supply risk hasn't gone away. US Central Command confirmed that a container ship that sank in the Strait of Hormuz this week was hit by an Iranian projectile, and freight rates for tankers leaving the Gulf are at record highs. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continue. Against that, the IEA has agreed to release the remaining 100M barrels from the coordinated stock release it began in March, which helps explain the pullback from 97.87. WTI is up more than 6% on the week. On a Friday, some traders take profits before the weekend, and weekend headlines from the Gulf can open Monday with a gap in either direction. Keep positions small.
WTI levels and setups
This is a two-sided day. Let price show acceptance on one side of 96.32 before taking a trade. The buy is a retest of the daily VaH that holds, targeting the LVN and then 97.25. The sell needs an hourly close back inside value first, then a retest of 96.32 from below.
Buy setup acceptance above
- Buy zone
- 96.32 – 96.45 Retest of Thursday's daily VaH from above; wait for a reaction on the 15-minute or hourly chart
- Stop-loss
- 96.00 Back inside Thursday's value
- Targets
- 96.82 / 97.25 The LVN, then the 5-day composite VaH
Sell setup acceptance below
- Trigger
- Hourly close below 96.32 Wait for it: no trigger, no trade
- Sell zone
- 96.20 – 96.32 Retest of the daily VaH from below
- Stop-loss
- 96.70 Back above value and into the LVN
- Targets
- 95.64 / 94.82 / 94.13 Composite PoC, composite VaL, then Thursday's daily PoC
Invalidation: Neither side is preferred until price shows acceptance. Hourly closes above 96.32 favour the buy and hourly closes below it favour the sell. A fast break of 96.00 without a retest means the sell has been missed. Don't chase it.
| Level | What it is | Role today |
|---|---|---|
| 97.87 | Thursday's high | Breakout high; resistance |
| 97.25 | 5-day composite VaH | Upside target if 96.32 holds |
| 96.75–96.88 | LVN from Thursday's breakout | First target above; resistance |
| 96.32 | Thursday's daily VaH | Pivot for the day |
| 95.64 | 5-day composite PoC | First target inside value |
| 94.82 | 5-day composite VaL | Second target |
| 94.13 | Thursday's daily PoC | Value magnet if 96.32 fails |
Today's calendar (London time)
- 13:30: US import and export prices (September)
- 14:15: US industrial production (0.4% m/m expected)
- 18:00: Baker Hughes US rig count
- 20:30: CFTC Commitments of Traders report (positioning as of Tuesday)
Wait for price to reach a zone and show a reaction on the 15-minute or hourly chart before entering. Stand aside in the minutes around 13:30 BST. Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.