Daily note, Thursday 15 October 2026, morning update
WTI reclaims Wednesday's value; 95.93 VaH is the breakout line
WTI dipped to 93.57 overnight, then reclaimed Monday's PoC and Wednesday's 94.92 VaL in a single hourly candle. It is now retesting the bottom of value, with the 95.93 daily VaH as the breakout line ahead of EIA stocks. Buy setups, stops and targets from the volume profile.
Prices as of 15 Oct 2026, at 10:25 BST
- Crude oil
-
WTI crude USOUSD
Bullish above 94.31
VaH93.05PoC93.16mVaH94.09mPoC94.31VaL94.82dVaL94.92dPoC95.47PoC95.64dVaH95.93VaH97.2794.93
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 10:25 BST. Ticks are volume profile levels: dVaL, dPoC and dVaH are Wednesday's daily value area, mVaH and mPoC are Monday's daily VaH and PoC, and PoC, VaL and VaH are 5-day composite levels.
The picture
Overnight, WTI slipped out of Wednesday's value. It fell through Monday's daily PoC at 94.31 and VaH at 94.09, and reached a low of 93.57 at 02:00 BST. Last night's trade idea stayed on the sidelines through all of this: it was a long only if price got back inside value, and until then there was no trade.
The 09:00 BST hour gave the trigger. In one candle, WTI ran from 94.09 to 95.36 and closed at 95.35, back above Monday's PoC, the 94.82 composite VaL and Wednesday's 94.92 daily VaL. That hourly close back inside Wednesday's value area (94.92–95.93) is the acceptance the idea was waiting for, and the dip below value has been rejected. At 10:25 BST price is retesting the VaL from above at 94.93, right in the idea's entry zone.
Markets that get back into value tend to rotate through it. The first resistance is the cluster of the 95.47 daily PoC and the 95.64 composite PoC. Above that sits the 95.93 daily VaH. An hourly close above it would put the 14 October high at 96.21 and the 97.27 composite VaH in play.
Fundamentals
Crude snapped a five-session rally on Wednesday and drifted lower in Asia, even with new attacks on Hormuz shipping and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. The 09:00 BST buying came as Europe opened and the dollar slipped back from its post-CPI jump.
The main event is the EIA weekly stocks report at 17:00 BST. On Tuesday night the API reported an 11.1M-barrel crude draw, the largest since January, against an expected build. If the EIA confirms a draw of that size, it is the most likely catalyst for a break above 95.93. A much smaller draw, or a build, would leave the bounce exposed. US PPI and retail sales at 13:30 BST can also move the dollar.
WTI levels and setups
The preferred trade is last night's idea, now triggered: buy the retest of the 94.92 VaL, with the stop under Monday's PoC. Take partial profit at the 95.47–95.64 PoC cluster, and let the rest run to the VaH. For the breakout, wait for an hourly close above 95.93.
Buy setup preferred
- Buy zone
- 94.92 – 95.05 Retest of Wednesday's daily VaL from above; last night's idea, triggered at 10:00 BST
- Stop-loss
- 94.20 Below Monday's daily PoC (94.31), as in last night's idea
- Targets
- 95.47 / 95.93 Daily PoC, then the daily VaH
Buy setup breakout
- Trigger
- Hourly close above 95.93 Wait for it: no trigger, no trade
- Buy zone
- 95.85 – 96.00 Retest of the daily VaH from above
- Stop-loss
- 95.40 Back under the daily PoC
- Targets
- 96.21 / 97.27 / 99.81 Wednesday's high, the composite VaH, then the prior composite value
Sell setup only on rejection
- Trigger
- Hourly close back below 94.82
- Sell zone
- 94.82 – 94.92 Retest of the VaL from below
- Stop-loss
- 95.25
- Targets
- 94.31 / 93.60
Invalidation: an hourly close back below 94.82 means the reclaim has failed and turns the bias neutral. Acceptance below Monday's 94.31 PoC turns it bearish, with the 93.57 overnight low and the 93.05–93.16 composite VaH and PoC next.
| Level | What it is | Role today |
|---|---|---|
| 99.81–100.57 | Prior 5-day composite value area | Major resistance band |
| 97.27 | 5-day composite VaH | Breakout target |
| 96.21 | 14 October high | First target above the VaH |
| 95.93 | Wednesday's daily VaH | Breakout trigger |
| 95.47–95.64 | Daily PoC and 5-day composite PoC | First resistance; partial profit |
| 94.82–94.92 | 5-day composite VaL and daily VaL | Buy zone; must hold |
| 94.09–94.31 | Monday's daily VaH and PoC | Bias pivot; stop goes below |
| 93.57 | Overnight low | Support |
| 93.05–93.16 | 5-day composite VaH and PoC | Breakout base |
Today's calendar (London time)
- 13:30: US PPI (0.5% m/m expected), retail sales (0.3% expected), jobless claims, Philly Fed and Empire State surveys
- 17:00: EIA weekly crude, gasoline and distillate stocks
- Friday 04:30: Fed Chair Warsh speaks
Wait for price to reach a zone and show a reaction on the 15-minute or hourly chart before entering. Stand aside in the minutes around 13:30 and 17:00 BST. Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.