Daily note, Tuesday 20th October 2026
WTI: $102.4 in sight
Long above $96.2 from Sunday, target the $102.4 naked PoC. WTI has taken out last week's $100.5 high and Monday's $100.7 high and is a dollar off the target. Today's trade: buy the retest of $100.5–100.7.
- Crude oil
-
WTI crude USOUSD
Bullish above $100.5
dPoC$98.5dVaH$99.6Wk high$100.5Mon high$100.7nPoC$102.4Sep VaH$103.7$101.5
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 10:06 BST. dPoC, dVaH: Monday's daily PoC and VaH. Wk high: last week's high. Mon high: Monday's high. nPoC: naked PoC, week of 14th September. Sep VaH: that week's VaH.
The picture
Sunday's weekly outlook: long above $96.2, target the naked PoC from the week of 14th September at $102.4. Two sessions later WTI is at $101.5 (10:06 BST), up from $99.4 when the outlook went out. A dollar from target.
Monday's dip held $97.7, above the old $97.3 VaH. Value built $98.5–99.6, dPoC $98.5. Overnight price left that value and this morning took out last week's high at $100.5 and Monday's high at $100.7. Session high so far about $101.7.
The profile is thin from last week's high to $102.4. That's why price is moving fast. First touch of a naked PoC usually gets sold. If it doesn't, the same week's VaH at $103.7 is next.
Fundamentals
Hormuz is back in the price. Iran is threatening a wider blockade and says two tankers carrying up to 4M bbl hit mines. Flows had been recovering earlier in the month. Monday's sell-off on the delayed Russia sanctions and better Gulf flows is fully retraced. Nothing has changed underneath: US commercial crude 2.7% below the 5-year average, distillates 12.2% below, managed money net long only 40,600 contracts in WTI in the week to 13th October. Funds are light and have room to add. (Charts.)
API reports tonight, EIA on Wednesday. Another big draw and $102.4 goes. A build, or tankers moving freely through Hormuz, is the risk to the long.
WTI levels and setups
Long above $100.5. Buy the retest of the breakout at $100.5–100.7. If price reaches $102.4 without a pullback, there's no trade. If you're already long, take profit on at least part at $102.4.
Buy setup retest of the breakout
- Buy zone
- $100.5 – $100.7 Last week's high and Monday's high, retested from above
- Stop-loss
- $99.5 Back inside Monday's value
- Targets
- $102.4 / $103.7 Naked PoC, week of 14th September, then that week's VaH
Invalidation: Hourly acceptance back below $100.5 puts price back in Monday's range. No long today. The weekly view holds above $96.2, last week's composite VaH.
| Level | What it is | Role today |
|---|---|---|
| $106.8 | September high | Major resistance |
| $103.7 | VaH, week of 14th September | Second target |
| $102.4 | Naked PoC, week of 14th September | Weekly target; expect sellers |
| $100.7 | Monday's high | Top of the buy zone |
| $100.5 | Last week's high | Pivot; buy zone |
| $99.6 | Monday's dVaH | Long is wrong below |
| $98.5 | Monday's dPoC | Magnet if the breakout fails |
| $96.2 | Last week's 5-day composite VaH | Weekly pivot |
Today's calendar (London time)
- 13:30: US housing starts and building permits (September)
- 21:30: API weekly crude stocks
Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.