Daily note, Wednesday 21st October 2026
WTI: back above $100.4 into EIA
Tuesday stalled just under the $102.4 naked PoC, then flushed to $96.9 overnight and got bought straight back. WTI is back above the $100.4 dPoC with EIA at 15:30 BST.
- Crude oil
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WTI crude USOUSD
Bullish above $100.4
VaH$96.2Low$96.9dVaL$98.9dPoC$100.4dVaH$102.1nPoC$102.4$100.7
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 11:57 BST. dVaL, dPoC, dVaH: Tuesday's daily value. VaH: last week's 5-day composite VaH. Low: Tuesday's flush low. nPoC: naked PoC, week of 14th September.
The picture
Tuesday stalled just under the $102.4 naked PoC and didn't trade it. Value built high: dVaH $102.1, dPoC $100.4, dVaL $98.9. Late in the session one hourly candle flushed to about $96.9, through dVaL and the old $97.3 VaH, and got bought straight back. Long tail, no follow-through. That's excess. It held above the $96.2 weekly pivot and the rising trendline from the 6th October low.
Since then: higher lows from $99.0 and back above dPoC. At 11:57 BST WTI is $100.7. A probe to about $101.3 this morning got sold, so the upper half of Tuesday's value isn't accepted yet.
Inside value, price rotates. Hold $100.4 and the top of value at $102.1 is next, then the $102.4 naked PoC Tuesday missed. Lose $100.4 and it's back to $98.9.
Fundamentals
API printed a 4.9M bbl crude draw for the week to 16th October against about 1.3M expected. Gasoline down 2.0M, distillates down 2.6M, Cushing up 0.9M. That follows last week's 8.6M EIA draw. EIA reports at 15:30 BST. A draw near the API number and $102.4 trades. A miss caps the top of value.
Tuesday's fade was diplomacy, not barrels. Crude came off its highs on hopes of US–Iran talks while tankers kept getting hit: Kpler counts at least 18 vessels fired on in two weeks, and the IRGC says two more tankers caught fire after hitting mines. The war premium trades headlines both ways. Vance already said on the 19th that the US had "in some ways" won decisively. A formal victory claim is the sell-the-news risk. Underneath, nothing has loosened: commercial crude 2.7% under the 5-year average, distillates 12.2% under in the week to 9th October. (Charts.)
WTI levels and setups
Long above $100.4. Buy the dPoC retest at $100.2–100.5. Targets $102.1, then $102.4. If you're already long from Tuesday, $102.4 is still the exit.
Buy setup dPoC retest
- Buy zone
- $100.2 – $100.5 Tuesday's dPoC, retested from above
- Stop-loss
- $99.4 Back in the lower half of Tuesday's value
- Targets
- $102.1 / $102.4 Top of Tuesday's value, then the naked PoC, week of 14th September
Invalidation: Hourly acceptance below $100.4 sends price back to the $98.9 dVaL. No long today. Below $98.9, Tuesday's $96.9 flush low is next. The weekly view holds above $96.2.
| Level | What it is | Role today |
|---|---|---|
| $103.7 | VaH, week of 14th September | Resistance above the naked PoC |
| $102.4 | Naked PoC, week of 14th September | Target; expect sellers |
| $102.1 | Tuesday's dVaH | First target |
| $101.3 | This morning's high | First resistance |
| $100.4 | Tuesday's dPoC | Pivot; buy zone |
| $98.9 | Tuesday's dVaL | Bottom of value |
| $97.3 | VaH, week of 28th September | Support |
| $96.9 | Tuesday's flush low | Excess; has to hold |
| $96.2 | Last week's 5-day composite VaH | Weekly pivot |
Today's calendar (London time)
- 15:30: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Prices are taken from a CFD feed (USOUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.