Daily note, Thursday 15 October 2026, morning update
Gold clears the CPI gap and presses Wednesday's 4,168 VaH
Gold has filled the 4,118–4,135 low-volume nodes left by CPI and is accepting back inside Wednesday's value. The 4,168 daily and composite VaH is the line for a breakout. Buy setups, stops and targets from the volume profile.
Prices as of 15 Oct 2026, at 10:05 BST
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Gold XAUUSD
Bullish above 4,143
dVaL4,094.80VaL4,113.87PoC4,133.19dPoC4,143.54dVaH4,168.264,155.75
Buy zone Sell zone Price at 10:05 BST. Ticks are volume profile levels: dVaL, dPoC and dVaH are Wednesday's daily value area, and PoC, VaL and VaH are 5-day composite levels.
The picture
Last night's gold note looked for sellers to defend the low-volume nodes (LVNs) at 4,118–4,135, the gap left by Wednesday's CPI drop. They didn't. Gold moved up through the whole gap in the first hours of Asia, reclaimed the 4,113.87 composite VaL and the 4,143.54 daily PoC, and reached 4,161 by 03:00 BST. The bearish setups from that note are off.
The pullback since then has been bought. The 06:00 BST dip stopped at 4,131.6, right on the 4,133.19 composite PoC at the top of the old gap, and price is back at 4,155. When a market fills a gap left by a news spike and then holds inside it on the retest, it is accepting the prices it rejected. Gold is now trading inside Wednesday's value area (4,094.80–4,168.26), and markets that get back into value tend to rotate to the other side of it. That puts the VaH in play.
4,168.26 is both Wednesday's daily VaH and the 5-day composite VaH, so it's the key level today. Wednesday's pre-CPI high of 4,170.45 sits just above it. An hourly close above the VaH would mean the CPI sell-off has been fully absorbed and opens 4,178, Tuesday's high near 4,197, and then the 4,239–4,248 supply zone.
Fundamentals
The rebound comes from the dollar. After jumping on Wednesday's hot CPI (3.7% headline, 2.6% core), the dollar has slipped back overnight, and gold has bounced from its one-week low. Lower oil prices also took a little of the inflation pressure off. The backdrop hasn't changed: markets are still pricing in some chance of a Fed hike. Treat this as a recovery inside a range until the VaH breaks, not as the start of a new trend.
The real test is at 13:30 BST. PPI is expected at 0.5% m/m, and retail sales at 0.3%. A second hot inflation print after CPI would put the 4,133 support at risk. Softer numbers would make the breakout through 4,168 more likely.
Gold levels and setups
The preferred trade is the breakout: wait for an hourly close above 4,168 and buy the retest. Buying under the VaH means buying into resistance before the data. If gold pulls back first, the 4,133–4,144 PoC cluster is the buy zone, as it was this morning. A failed test of 4,168 followed by a drop back under 4,155 would mean value is holding as a range, and price can rotate back to the PoCs.
Buy setup breakout
- Trigger
- Hourly close above 4,168 Wait for it: no trigger, no trade
- Buy zone
- 4,165 – 4,170 Retest of the daily and composite VaH from above
- Stop-loss
- 4,154 Back under the overnight 4,161 high and into value
- Targets
- 4,178 / 4,197 / 4,239 The 4,178 line, Tuesday's high, then the supply zone
Buy setup pullback
- Buy zone
- 4,133 – 4,144 Daily PoC and composite PoC, where this morning's dip held
- Stop-loss
- 4,124 Back inside the LVN gap, below the 4,131.6 morning low
- Targets
- 4,161 / 4,168
Sell setup only on rejection
- Trigger
- Test of 4,168, then an hourly close back below 4,155
- Sell zone
- 4,155 – 4,160 Short on the retest after the failed break
- Stop-loss
- 4,172
- Targets
- 4,144 / 4,133
Invalidation: hourly acceptance back below 4,133 puts price back in the CPI gap and turns the bias neutral, with the 4,113.87 composite VaL next.
| Level | What it is | Role today |
|---|---|---|
| 4,239–4,248 | Supply zone from the 28 September drop | Third target |
| 4,197 | 13 October high | Second target |
| 4,178 | Horizontal line from 12–13 October | First target |
| 4,168.26 | Wednesday's daily VaH and 5-day composite VaH | Breakout trigger |
| 4,161 | Overnight high | Resistance below the VaH |
| 4,143.54 | Wednesday's daily PoC | Bias pivot; top of the buy zone |
| 4,131.6–4,133.19 | Morning low and 5-day composite PoC | Bottom of the buy zone |
| 4,118–4,135 | CPI LVNs, now filled | Bias turns neutral back inside |
| 4,113.87 | 5-day composite VaL | Support if the gap fails |
| 4,094.80 | Wednesday's daily VaL | Bottom of value |
Today's calendar (London time)
- 13:30: US PPI (0.5% m/m expected), retail sales (0.3% expected), jobless claims, Philly Fed and Empire State surveys
- Friday 04:30: Fed Chair Warsh speaks
Wait for price to reach a zone and show a reaction on the 15-minute or hourly chart before entering. Stand aside in the minutes around 13:30 BST. Prices are taken from a CFD feed (XAUUSD) and can differ from futures prices and from your broker's quotes.