Gold Daily Levels: Thursday 15 October 2026

The picture

Gold spent most of the past two weeks rotating inside its composite value, between the 4,113.87 VaL and the 4,168.26 VaH. Wednesday's US CPI release broke that balance. In a single hourly candle, gold spiked to 4,155, then fell to 4,085. Price moved so fast through 4,118–4,135 that almost no volume traded there, leaving the two low-volume nodes (LVNs) marked on the chart. Selling continued to a low of 4,073 at 16:00 UTC, which held just above last week's low at 4,066.

Since then gold has bounced about $35 and is retesting the 4,113.87 VaL from below. Retests of LVNs left by a sharp move tend to fail on the first touch: the market didn't want to trade there on the way down. The 4,118–4,135 gap, with the 4,133.19 composite PoC inside it, is where sellers are expected to defend.

Gold (XAUUSD) with 5-day composite and daily volume profiles. 14 October, 22:20 UTC. Select the chart to open it full size.

Fundamentals

The macro backdrop is against gold for now. September CPI came in at 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, both a tenth above forecast. Markets added to bets on a Fed hike, the dollar index jumped to about 102.5, and gold fell for a third straight session. Gold is trading below its 20-day (4,199), 50-day (4,334) and 200-day (4,524) averages, with daily RSI at 39, so there is room to fall before it is oversold.

Thursday brings more tests: PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC, then Fed Chair Warsh early on Friday. Another hot print would add to the pressure. The longer-term picture is more mixed. Morgan Stanley this week forecast gold at $5,000 by mid-2027, and with the dollar index's RSI near 70, a pause in the dollar could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce. Average daily range is about $77.

Gold levels and setups

The preferred trade is to sell a failed retest of the LVN gap, not to short at the lows. Below 4,073, the next marked support is the 4,066 swing low, then the 4,015 weekly S2 from this week's outlook. On the upside, hourly acceptance back above the 4,143.54 daily PoC would mean the CPI move has been absorbed.

Sell setup preferred

Sell zone: 4,118 – 4,135 Both LVNs and the 4,133 composite PoC
Stop-loss: 4,150 Above the 4,143.54 daily PoC
Targets: 4,095 / 4,073

Sell setup if the squeeze extends

Sell zone: 4,165 – 4,178 5-day composite VaH and the 4,178 line
Stop-loss: 4,195
Targets: 4,143 / 4,114

Buy setup counter-trend, only on a reaction

Buy zone: 4,066 – 4,075 14 October low (4,073) and 7 October low (4,066)
Stop-loss: 4,048
Targets: 4,095 / 4,113

Invalidation: hourly acceptance above the 4,143.54 daily PoC turns the bias neutral. Acceptance above the 4,168 VaH would put gold back in the old value, with the 4,239–4,248 supply zone next.

Level	What it is	Role today
4,348.14	5-day composite VaH (late September)	Upper value edge, out of range for now
4,294.56	5-day composite PoC (late September)	Upper magnet if value is regained
4,261.91	5-day composite VaL (late September)	Resistance above the supply zone
4,239–4,248	Supply zone from the 28 September drop	Major resistance
4,168.26	5-day composite VaH	Top of the current value; second sell zone
4,143.54	Daily PoC	Bias pivot
4,118–4,135	Two LVNs and the 4,133.19 composite PoC	Preferred sell zone
4,113.87	5-day composite VaL	Being retested from below
4,094.80	Daily VaL	First target
4,066–4,073	7 and 14 October lows	Second target; counter-trend buy zone

Today's calendar (UTC)

02:55: Fed's Bowman speaks
12:30: US PPI (0.5% m/m expected), retail sales (0.3% expected), jobless claims, Philly Fed and Empire State surveys
Friday 03:30: Fed Chair Warsh speaks

Wait for price to reach a zone and show a reaction on the 15-minute or hourly chart before entering. Stand aside in the minutes around 12:30 UTC. Prices are from Vantage's XAUUSD feed and can differ from your broker's quotes.