Weekly Oil & Gold Levels: 12–16 October 2026

This week at a glance

Market	Price	Bias	Pivot	Key level
WTI crude	95.00	Bullish	90.58	96.90–97.20 (resistance)
Brent crude	105.80	Bullish, near resistance	102.50	109.70–110.00 (September highs)
Gold (XAU/USD)	4,084	Bearish	4,156	4,066 (last week's low)

Macro backdrop

Crude is still supported by Middle East supply risk, Strait of Hormuz headlines and high shipping costs. Brent is holding above $100 even with a firmer dollar. China's Q3 GDP and September activity data (Monday 19 October) are the next demand check.

US September CPI came in hot: headline 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, and core 2.6% against 2.5%. Markets added to bets on a Fed hike. The dollar jumped and gold fell more than 1% on the day. Two more US releases land on Thursday 15 October: PPI (0.5% m/m expected) and retail sales (0.3% expected). Then Fed Chair Warsh speaks early on Friday 16 October (03:30 UTC). Another strong reading would keep pressure on gold.

WTI crude: bullish above 92.50

WTI is up three days in a row, from 89.60 to 95. It has cleared its 20-day average (92.45) and the weekly R1 (94.29). Next is a resistance band at 96.90–97.20, made up of weekly R2 and the 21 September swing high. A clean break of that band targets the 100.50–102 area, where the mid-September rally stalled. Buyers are better served on pullbacks than chasing at resistance. Average daily range is about $3.90.

Buy setup preferred

Buy zone: 92.30 – 93.00 Retest of the breakout and 20-day average
Stop-loss: 90.30 Below the weekly pivot
Targets: 96.90 / 100.50

Sell setup reaction trade at resistance

Sell zone: 100.60 – 101.50 Weekly R3 and mid-September congestion
Stop-loss: 103.20
Targets: 97.00 / 94.30

Invalidation: a daily close back below 90.50 (the pivot) cancels the bullish view.

S3 81.61S2 84.24S1 87.95P 90.58R1 94.29R2 96.92R3 100.63

Brent crude: bullish, approaching a major ceiling

Brent is the strongest of the three. It holds above both its 10-day (103.50) and 20-day (101.70) averages and touched 107.33 this week. The big test is 109.70–110.00, where Brent topped twice in September. Breaking above it opens the way to weekly R2 at 111.40. A failure there would complete a possible triple top. Support sits at 102.30–102.50, this week's low and the weekly pivot. Average daily range is about $4.15.

Buy setup preferred

Buy zone: 102.30 – 103.00 Pivot and this week's low
Stop-loss: 99.60 Below the 100 handle and S1
Targets: 107.90 / 109.80

Sell setup only on rejection

Sell zone: 109.50 – 110.50 September double top
Stop-loss: 112.30 Above weekly R2
Targets: 106.00 / 102.50

Invalidation: a daily close below 100 turns the bias neutral.

S3 90.23S2 93.64S1 99.09P 102.50R1 107.95R2 111.36R3 116.81

Gold (XAU/USD): bearish below 4,155

Gold has fallen in four of the last five weeks and trades below its 20-day (4,210), 50-day (4,336) and 200-day (4,525) averages. The daily technical rating is Strong Sell, and RSI is at 37 with room to fall before it is oversold. Today's CPI drop is pressing on last week's low at 4,066. A daily close below that level opens the way to 4,015 and then to the multi-month base at 3,942–3,965, which held in June and July. Average daily range is about $78, so size positions with that in mind.

Sell setup preferred

Sell zone: 4,150 – 4,175 Weekly pivot and 10-day average
Stop-loss: 4,225 Above this week's high, 4,217
Targets: 4,067 / 4,015 / 3,965

Buy setup counter-trend, at support only

Buy zone: 3,945 – 3,965 June–July lows and weekly S3
Stop-loss: 3,905
Targets: 4,060 / 4,150

Invalidation: a weekly close above 4,225 turns the bias neutral and points to 4,245–4,297 (R1–R2).

S3 3,964S2 4,015S1 4,105P 4,156R1 4,246R2 4,297R3 4,387

Key events to watch

Thursday 15 October, 12:30 UTC: US PPI and retail sales
Friday 16 October, 03:30 UTC: Fed Chair Warsh speaks
This week: EIA weekly crude inventories; Middle East and Strait of Hormuz headlines
Monday 19 October, 02:00 UTC: China Q3 GDP, industrial production and retail sales

Wait for price to reach a zone and show a reaction, such as a rejection candle on the 1H or 4H chart, before entering. Avoid opening positions in the minutes around high-impact releases.

Methodology

Levels come from classic weekly pivot points (based on last week's high, low and close), daily moving averages, recent swing highs and lows, and the 14-day average true range. Stops sit beyond the structure that would invalidate each idea. Targets sit at the next major level, which aims for roughly 1.5:1 reward-to-risk or better.